The truth at any cost lowers all other costs — curated by former US spy Robert David Steele.
Phi Beta Iota: Act I was 1988-1993. Act II was 1993-2011. Act III began with the publication of NO MORE SECRETS with a Foreword by Senator Gary Hart (D-CO).
Below the line in full (or click on links to originals):
OPEN UP OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE
THE INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE
Continue reading “Steven Aftergood: Open Source Intelligence Act III”
Reasoning by analogy is powerful, but dangerous for of thinking. Einstein, for example, showed how reasoning by analogy can unleash stunning insights , but only when properly tempered by critical observation, testing, and systematic analysis, can analogical insights lead to brilliant syntheses that literally change our view of reality.
But that benefit comes with a heavy price, because this kind of reasoning is also a very dangerous way to think. Analogies can capture the imagination and thereby bias the Orientation of less disciplined thinkers and decision makers to distort and twist their Observations into a vision of reality the Observer/Decision Maker wants to see. In so doing, the distorted Orientation takes decision maker off the cliff by disconnecting his Actions from the real world. And … for every Einstein with a highly disciplined Observation – Orientation – Decision Action loop, there are thousands of crackpots, nutcases, and charlatans trying to sell their visions of “what is” to sell their pre-concieved views of appropriate decisions and actions of action.
In the below essay, Richard Falk offers a good example of reasoning by analogy done properly. He carefully crafts and explains a limited set of parallels between the January 1968 Tet Offensive in Viet Nam to Obama's dilemma in Afghanistan. CS
The Tet Offensive's parallels to Afghanistan
The United States should learn from mistakes it made during the Vietnam War and withdraw from Afghanistan.
EXTRACTS:
Continue reading “Chuck Spinney: Richard Falk on USG Learning Disability”
Worth a read. Interesting report based on innovative research method. From the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies.
Report: Contours of Conflict in the 21st Century
EXTRACT from Overview:
In gaining a better understanding of the future nature of conflict, it is therefore of the utmost importance to go beyond the traditional Western (English) language domain experts, and include views from regions across the world. The main purpose of the Future Nature of Conflict project is therefore to map and analyze global perspectives about the future nature of conflict published over the last two decades across four language domains – Arabic, Chinese, English and Slavic.
Phi Beta Iota: Finally! For years we have talked about the need to do multi-lingual perspectives and statements (e.g. charting Chinese, Vietnamese, Philippine, and Australian statements on the Spratley Islands going back 200 years). The protocol developed by this team must be –along with M4IS2–the future of strategic dialog, policy, acquisition, and operations. Any intelligence community that is unable to do this for any issue, any question, may as well go out of business.
Reading through the report is a real pleasure, with all sources being spelled out in footnotes that are actively linked to the original sources. This is a marvelous gift to scholars and practitioners at multiple levels.
A few highlights:
Continue reading “Reference: Contours of 21st Century Conflict”
The memorandum “Collateral Damage: U.S. Covert Operations and the Terrorist Attacks on September 11, 2001” has been circulating for years on the Internet, studiously ignored by most. It was previously posted as a journal item on this website. Since then, the public has learned a great deal more about both gold and greed, and the memorandum is once again circulating.
This is by no means the complete story, and there are some leaps of imagination and speculation that must be deeply investigated or discounted. Central to appreciating the magnitude of the government cover-up is the FACT that MONTHS before 9/11 Dick Cheney set in motion the national counter-terrorism exercise that gave him complete control on “the day” of 9/11.
What is clear is that there is a great deal more investigation to be done, and that a truth and reconciliation commission should be created in time to put Dick Cheney and the others on the stand before they either die a natural death or are assassinated by foreign governments righteously angry over what has been done to them by American children playing with fire.
Here are a few extracts that today have a greater likelihood of being appreciated for their substance.
The invitation came to me from Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta's public affairs office to attend a “conversation” with Panetta and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton at the prestigious National Defense University in Washington. Although I knew it wasn't me they wanted to talk to, I sat in the audience to hear Panetta and Clinton in action, especially on the subject of my prime interest: the defense budget.
Continue reading “Winslow Wheeler: Leon Panetta Misleads Public”
ABSTRACT
Intelligence is a tool for power and traditionally very sensitive by nature. Well-established and bureaucratic resistance, international positioning and working methods hamper cooperation concerning intelligence. In a multifunctional and multinational peace operation a lot of informal structures are intertwined with formal structures.
EXTRACT
In order to create a picture of the widest spectrum in a multifunctional mission cooperation is necessary among military, police, Governmental- and International organisations and NGO`s. Intelligence services need to communicate with each other, and multi-lateral agreements need to be established to governing the collection, analysis and sharing of intelligence.
See Also:
2003 PEACEKEEPING INTELLIGENCE: Emerging Concepts for the Future
2004 4 Dec Stockholm Peacekeeping Intelligence Trip Report
Books: Intelligence for Peace (PKI Book Two) Finalizing
Worth a Look: First Ever UN Joint Military Analysis Centre Course (October 2009)
